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Martha’s Vineyard 2024 Real Estate Market Review

The Martha’s Vineyard real estate market continued to soften in 2024. The number of total transactions fell 8.1% from 407 transactions in 2023 to 374 transactions in 2024. Dollar volume decreased 6.1% from $817mm in 2023 to $766mm in 2024. Average price increased modestly 2.2% from $2.01mm in 2023 to $2.05mm in 2024. 

To give a broader perspective on these numbers, 374 transactions is the lowest activity level since 2009 for this market. The dollar volume of $766mm takes us back to the 2019 level, prior to the COVID boom. But average price continued to climb to another record setting high level in 2024.   

Residential sales in 2024 accounted for 86% of overall market dollar volume and 81% of transactions. Looking at residential properties specifically (including condo sales), transactions and dollar volume declined similarly to the overall market (both down 7%), while average price of residential properties fell modestly from $2.196mm in 2023 to $2.176mm in 2024 (a 1% decline). Median price remained essentially flat from $1.550mm in 2023 to $1.555mm in 2024. 2024 is the first time average price of residential property has fallen since the pre-COVID boom.

The downturn in average price of residential property, albeit just 1%, could be a significant marker of a shift in the real estate market on the island.  The downward trend of total market volume and number of transactions has been occurring for three years now, since the COVID peak in 2021, but average price of residential property was defiantly continuing to climb in 2022 (up 2%) and 2023 (up 7%). 2024 marked the end of that climb. In 2024, all three of these indicators (dollar volume, number of transactions and average price of residential property) posted declines.

Note that average price of all property sales was up 2.2% in 2024. Average price of all properties year over year has not decreased for the past 10 years (but was flat in 2022). 

INVENTORY AND PRICING TRENDS 2020-2024

The two-year real estate boom on Martha’s Vineyard during 2020 and 2021 was driven by the COVID pandemic, low interest rates and high demand for Vineyard properties. During these years, the number of transactions soared and prices rose. The market slowed in 2022, however, as the number of transactions dropped dramatically and prices started to level off.  2023 continued this downward trajectory with the caveat of rising prices which rose 7% in 2023. 2024 continued downward activity and, this time residential prices were included, which may signal the official end of the COVID era in the real estate market on the island. It is important to note, that although residential prices softened a bit in 2024, the average price for residential property remains 35% higher than pre-COVID (average price for residential property in 2019 was $1.614mm, compared to $2.176mm in 2024). 

The inventory level climbed in 2024 which is perhaps another marker of the end of the COVID era. Although inventory is still below average inventory levels pre-COVID, increased inventory in 2024 may have affected the lower average price of homes. Peak inventory level has been climbing since 2021 but the growth rate has been slow until 2024. Peak inventory jumped up to 292 properties in 2024. Prior to that, peak inventory in 2023 was 230 properties, 201 properties in 2022 and 187 properties in 2021.  Peak inventory in 2019 (prior to the boom) was 527 properties, revealing that peak inventory in 2024 was still down more than 45% compared to pre-COVID levels but the pace of growth accelerated in 2024.  

In these respects the Martha’s Vineyard real estate market mirrored the national housing market in 2024.  “U.S. existing-home sales fell in 2024 to the lowest level since 1995, the second straight year of anemic sales” the Wall Street Journal reported. “The number of sales is also down about a third from the more than six million homes that sold in 2021, when the market was booming due to low mortgage rates and pent-up demand after the first year of the pandemic….Home prices have continued rising on a year-over-year basis, because the inventory of homes for sale is lower than historically normal levels.  Inventory is up from year-ago levels, but supply is still tight in many markets because many would-be sellers with low mortgage rates are unwilling to sell and take on a higher rate to buy a different home.” (Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2025).

Meanwhile, the Martha’s Vineyard Average Days On Market (“DOM”) for sold properties hit its low point in 2024. The figures for Average DOM have seesawed in the past few years but have been moving generally in a downward trend. In 2020, when the real estate boom was just starting, average DOM for sold properties was 250 days.  It dropped to 171 days in 2021 and 135 in 2022, then moved up to 154 in 2023. Average DOM in 2024 dropped to its lowest point of 117 days. It seems counter-intuitive that DOM fell in 2024 when total transactions decreased to the lowest level since 2009 and pricing remained high. Why are these sold properties moving faster? It may be that Sellers felt the shift in the market occurring and negotiated to make their sales close, and/or that Buyers have become more savvy about the market as they have waited for properties and were ready to make their moves when the right property emerged. Lower DOM doesn't mean everything sold - inventory is rising and some properties have been sitting on the market for well beyond the average 117 DOM which may mean that the pricing on these properties is out of line with value, there is an obstacle to overcome with the property or they are simply in a market niche that moves more slowly.

While properties moved more quickly in 2024, and prices remained at or near their all-time high, the entry level segment of the market under $1mm continued to be further squeezed. Only 25% of transactions occurred under $1mm in 2024 versus 31% in 2023. However, the highest end of the market also slowed, dropping off dramatically in 2024 with only 4 sales at $10mm+ versus 8 sales in 2023. 

While the above statistics include all transactions and represent island-wide performance, individual towns and market segments reveal different dynamics. Martha’s Vineyard is an island with six towns, each with its own character and specific market conditions. Within each town there are different niches as well…waterfront, water view, high-end, mid-range, entry level and commercial properties. Generalizing trends or making broad statements is challenging because each market segment can be, on its own, very small. However, it is worth diving into the different towns and niches to understand their role in the overall market performance.

Conclusion

The 2024 Martha’s Vineyard real estate market gave a clearer picture of where we are headed. It was another year marked by slow activity but this time prices began to stabilize and inventory started to grow. It seems we are seeing a slow shift in the Martha’s Vineyard market. The Seller’s market dynamic, front and center since the COVID pandemic, has begun to weaken. While this should give Buyers some optimism, as long as prices remain high, Sellers are still in a stong position.

The future remains uncertain. Some predictions for the national housing in market in 2025 follow: “Realtor.com is predicting that mortgage rates will hover around 6.3 percent through next year while Redfin expects them to stay closer to 7 percent, keeping many prospective buyers on the sidelines….Redfin, expecting that demand will continue to outpace supply, predicts prices will rise by 4 percent next year, while CoreLogic, expecting that high interest rates will deter more buyers, forecasts a more modest 1.9 percent growth….Sam Kater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, projects that prices will rise faster than they did in 2024, but sales will still increase as buyers come to terms with how far their dollars will go.  ‘Home buyers will adjust what they’re looking for,’ he said.” (New York Times, December 11, 2024).

“Zillow’s economists forecast a slight increase in home sales and more modest home price appreciation in 2025…A housing market in the doldrums has been hurt by volatile mortgage rates, but a severe shortage of available homes is the most critical obstacle of would-be buyers, Zillow Group Chief Executive Jeremy Wacksman said.  ‘Homes are just not trading nearly as much as they could, which contributes to making it tougher for buyers’.  Zillow estimates the U.S. housing market is short by about 4.5 million homes. Regulatory hurdles and other obstacles to development at the local level stymie growth in home supplies, and many areas are struggling to make housing affordable.  New challenges may arise if President Trump fulfills pledges to raise tariffs and removes millions of undocumented immigrants, many of whom work in construction. ‘Not to oversimply, but you really can boil the housing affordability crisis down to an availability crisis’ Waksman said. ‘Getting more homes available is going to be ultimately what starts to unstick the housing market.’” (Wall Street Journal, Jan. 23, 2025)

As we mentioned last year, housing is more than just an economic asset.  Whether you are considering a seasonal vacation home or a year-round property, you are likely thinking about family and friends, what the Vineyard offers, where you are in your own life cycle, what you are looking forward to and what you would like to change. There are many reasons people choose to buy or sell at any moment in time. For those who can afford it and have waited on the sidelines for the market to improve, 2025 may be the time to jump in and move forward. For Sellers, prices may not continue to appreciate as they have in the last few years so it may not benefit you to wait. For Buyers, more inventory and negotiating power should be accessible in 2025 but keep in mind that Average Days on Market decreased in 2024 so there is, as always, competition from other buyers for desirable properties that are also well priced.

If you are thinking of selling or buying real estate on the island, it is important to consult with your agent to better understand the market specific to your needs, and strategize so that you can move adeptly as the opportunity arises. 

National and world events will continue to affect our local economy, for good or bad. With the new administration, one war continuing and another on a temporary ceasefire, there is never any certainty what will happen in the year to come. But the Martha’s Vineyard real estate market is solid and the draw to the slower, quieter, simpler life the island offers is as strong as ever. We remain optimistic about the year ahead for buyers and sellers alike.

KEY MARKET STATISTICS

TEA LANE ASSOCIATES' YEAR-END HIGHLIGHTS 2024

Tea Lane Associates sold property in all six towns in 2024 and represented the buyer and/or seller in the three highest sales in Chilmark including the highest transaction up-island in 2024. Tea Lane sold three of the five residential sales in Aquinnah, and five of the top ten sales in West Tisbury including the two highest sales. 

Tea Lane Associates advised the Sellers in the highest priced vacant land transaction on the island in 2024.

Tea Lane Associates sales included five of the top 20 brokered sales island-wide in 2024. 

Tea Lane Associates’ sales represented 46% of Chilmark dollar volume, 41% of Aquinnah dollar volume, 39% of all up-island dollar volume, and 12% of dollar volume island-wide. 

Tea Lane Associates represented buyers and sellers at all price points. We worked with buyers who have been coming to the Vineyard for their lifetime and buyers who discovered the island more recently, with buyers who were upgrading on the island, buyers who were downsizing and with buyers who were expanding their holdings on the island. We helped families purchase their year-round homes, and buyers who were setting up for retirement. We worked with sellers (individuals, groups of family members, trustees, business partners) to list and sell a wide range of properties from vacant land, to new construction, to beloved generational family homes.  All are an important part of what we do and we were honored to be part of a new chapter in our clients’ lives.

In 2024, Tea Lane Associates affiliated with Forbes Global Properties, a brokerage owned and Invitation-only international marketing network. As an independent agency with over 55 years of experience and deep roots in the Martha’s Vineyard community, Tea Lane Associates enhanced its local roots with global reach for our clients. Tea Lane exclusively represents Martha’s Vineyard in the Forbes network of print, digital, and social media channels, engaging an audience of more than 140 million. Forbes Global Properties connects buyers and sellers of luxury properties worldwide and is the exclusive real estate partner of Forbes, one of the world’s most trusted media brands.