MID YEAR MARKET UPDATE JULY 2019 - Fewer sales may be due to lower inventory

The real estate market on Martha’s Vineyard slowed in the first half of 2019. Total sales fell 19% from 270 in the first half of 2018 to 218 in the first half of 2019. Total dollar volume fell 12% over the same period from $329.6mm in 2018 to $288.5mm in 2019. Average price rose 8% from $1.22mm in 2018 to $1.32mm in 2019.  

"UP-ISLAND" REMAINS SOLID: The activity in Aquinnah, Tisbury and West Tisbury did not contribute to the slow down and these towns fared well in the first half of 2019 with either flat or growth performance. However, transactions were down and dollar volume declined in Chilmark (-26%), Edgartown (-31%) and Oak Bluffs (-20%) in the first half of the year.

81 Squibnocket Farm Road Sold by Tea Lane Associates 5/24/19 for $11,083,500

FIVE SALES OVER $10MM:  The slow down seems to have affected all price segments of the market equally. Looking at the high end in particular, although there was growth in the $10mm+ market in the first half of 2019 (there were 5 sales over $10mm in the first half of 2019, including the record highest priced residential sale, versus 3 sales over $10mm in the first half of 2018), there were only 12 sales over $3mm in the first half of 2019 versus 14 in 2018. Overall the $3mm+ market share remained around 5% in both years (5.2% of all transactions in the first half of 2018 were $3mm+ and 5.5% in the first half of 2019). On the other end of the range, the market share for the number of sales under $1mm remained steady at 72% in the first half of both years.

Photo of "Mohu", Katharine Grahams property by Mark Alan Lovewell, courtesy of the Vineyard Gazette

KATHARINE GRAHAMS WEST TISBURY ESTATE  SOLD FOR $32.5MM The most expensive residential sale on Martha’s Vineyard transacted in January 2019. The 186-acre property on the North shore of West Tisbury, owned by the son of former Washington Post publisher Katharine Graham, sold 1/11/19 for $32.5mm. The property included a main house, guesthouse, beach house and other outbuildings, beautiful grounds, trails and beach.

Photo of the Cagney Estate currently listed by Tea Lane Associates for $12,500,000.

ECOMONY WILL IMPACT THE SECOND HALF: Six months is only a snap shot in the Vineyard marketplace. Is this slow down a temporary one or an indication of things to come? There are many factors in play. The lower number of transactions (and higher prices) may be caused, in part, by the lower inventory we saw at the beginning of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018. Will the trend of lower inventory reverse itself as Martha’s Vineyard owners make a decision that the time is right to sell? We are seeing anecdotal evidence that this is happening but do not have clear statistics yet.  Will the Fed lower interest rates and, if so, will this decrease be significant enough to encourage buyers and boost sales? The state of the economy nationally will have a major impact on our local market as we move forward.  Heading into summer and then fall, the market trends for 2019 will become clear.